Saturday, September 24, 2011

churchill downs

What a race! Animal Kingdom won the 137th Kentucky Derby on Saturday in very impressive fashion.
Animal Kingdom had never run on the dirt before, but that proved to be not an obstacle as he got a perfect, perfect trip. Some may think this was an upset, but I'll disagree. Here's what I said about him in my Derby Preview:


If you look at this guy's form without knowing he's never run on dirt, you'd like him a lot more. That being said, he's never been worse than second. His last race,The Spiral, was just a Grade 3, but it was still impressive as he beat two other Derby runners going away. He'll need pace, but he's almost sure to get it in this Derby. 30/1 in the program, but could be one to take a flyer on.
Would love the be able to definitively say "I called it", but I didn't. I don't think I even ever said who my winner was. In my betting, I covered a lot of the field in an exacta (betting on who will come in first AND second), and I played a couple of horses across the board (betting to win (first), place (second), and show (third)). Those horses were Master of Hounds and Mucho Macho Man. MMM got third, so I recouped a little bit of money but not much. In a race like this though, I'll be happy to be close. All of the top three finishers were in my exacta.



As for the other contenders I previewed...


ARCHARCHARCH got a rough trip from the one hole. He didn't get pinballed around like I thought he might, but he did suffer a fracture to the cannon bone in one of his legs, and has been retired.


PANTS ON FIRE was forwardly placed throughout the first mile or so before fading in the stretch and finishing 9th.



DIALED IN found himself in much the same situation as Zenyatta in last year's Breeder's Cup Classic. He was probably 16 or so lengths back early on. Too much ground to make up, and too much traffic to negotiate. He did come on late, but it wasn't enough. He'll go on to the Preakness to chase the $5 million bonus for winning the Florida Derby and the Preakness.


MASTER OF HOUNDS was shuffled back in the beginning, but found himself just two-wide going into the first turn. He made a really nice run in the stretch, considering he was behind a wall of horses coming into the stretch. I said immediately after the race that if he stayed in America, he could be a strong contender for the Belmont, since it looked like he had something left for that extra quarter mile. He'll be returning to Ireland, however, but could be back for the Breeder's Cup in November, also at Churchill Downs.



SANTIVA found himself mid-pack early on, actually a good spot. Didn't do much after that though, and had to steady in the stretch. Finished a respectable sixth after accelerating again after steadying.


MUCHO MACHO MAN broke mid pack, and was there for most of the race. Actually had a really nice trip, and found himself with running room on the outside. He was passed by ANIMAL KINGDOM on the turn. Ran on well to finish third.


MIDNIGHT INTERLUDE broke mid pack and was caught wide on the first turn. He didn't make much of an impact and finished 16th.


SOLDAT broke well, and found himself three wide into the first turn. Not a bad spot, but he moved out wide heading into the final turn and tired to finish 11th.


NEHRO broke well and stayed up close despite his normal running style. The race was run fairly slowly, with the half mile going in 48 seconds and change. He was caught four, almost five wide into the first turn and stayed there throughout the race. Into the stretch, it looked like he might outlast SHACKLEFORD to win, but ANIMAL KINGDOM used incredible acceleration to get by them all. NEHRO will skip the Preakness and head to the Belmont.



A fun race to watch, but now it's time to think about the prospects of a Triple Crown. Again, we haven't seen one since 1978 and Affirmed. ANIMAL KINGDOM answered all the "dirt questions" with his performance on Saturday. We know he can get the distance of the Preakness (1 mile and 3/16ths), which is actually shorter than the Derby. Plus, it looked like he had something left in the tank at the end of the race. The question is, how will he bounce back? According to the connections, all was well with the horse on Sunday.



Racing again in two weeks is no easy task, and should he win that, three weeks after that will be the true test. The Belmont, at a mile and a half, is maybe the most grueling race these horses will ever meet. I sincerely hope he does it. The sport needs it.

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